- PwC identifies three waves of automation between now and the mid-2030s and how it will impact jobs
- Transport and manufacturing sectors have relatively high potential for job automation by the 2030s, health and education are less automatable
- Education is a key factor driving risk of automation, with less well educated men at highest risk in the long run
- But women could be at the higher risk over the next 5-10 years, for example in clerical roles
- There should be broadly offsetting job gains provided increased investment is made in retraining
The impacts of three overlapping waves of automation to the 2030s are examined in a new report published today by PwC: the algorithm wave, the augmentation wave and the autonomy wave.
The research analysed the tasks and skills involved in the jobs of over 200,000 workers across 29 countries in order to assess the potential impact of automation on workers in different industry sectors and of different genders, ages and education levels.
On average across the 29 countries covered, the share of jobs at potential high risk of automation is estimated to be only around 3% by the early 2020s, but this rises to almost 20% by the late 2020s, and around 30% by the mid-2030s.
The study suggests that more women could initially be impacted by the rise of automation, whereas men are more likely to feel the effects in the third wave by the mid-2030s (see table below). This is due to the types of tasks that are more susceptible to automation and the current gender profiles of employment by sector.
The Algorithm wave is already well underway and involves automating structured data analysis and simple digital tasks, such as credit scoring. This wave of innovation could come to maturity by the early 2020s.
http://mrem.bernama.com/viewsm.php?idm=31127
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